The Roof is on Fire, part 2: Can’t Stand the Heat

Our Migrating Ancestors

For much of their early pre-historic history, humans migrated for several primary reasons: access to food/water resources, escape from natural hazards, and rapid population growth:

• As hunter-gatherers, they relied on the availability of food sources, prompting them to move when resources were depleted in one area.

• Climate change and shifting weather patterns also influenced migration. Early humans had to adapt to changing environmental conditions, such as ice ages or desertification, and sought regions with more favorable climates, with abundant food and water resources.

• Population pressure drove migration. As human populations grew, competition for resources increased, and groups dispersed into new territories with untapped resources to alleviate pressure.

Furthermore, in addition to natural climate changes, natural disasters like floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, or prolonged droughts forced early humans to seek safer and more hospitable regions to sustain their lives. Overall, these factors—search for food, climate change, population pressure, and escape from natural disasters—contributed to the migratory patterns of early humans, shaping their survival strategies and facilitating the exploration of new, potentially more promising lands. A natural result of global warming is extreme and prolonged heat events, so we are again faced with a challenge of how we adapt.

The Heat is On

Impact On Health

Health impacts of extreme heat range from heat exhaustion and heat cramps to life-threatening heatstroke. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) report heat as the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the U.S., causing hundreds of fatalities annually. Vulnerable groups such as the elderly, children, and individuals with pre-existing medical conditions are particularly at risk. Elevated temperatures can exacerbate respiratory and cardiovascular problems, and dehydration can lead to complications like kidney stones.

Mortality rates also spike during extreme heat events. A 2020 study in Nature Climate Change estimated that in the U.S., about 5.6% of all deaths each summer, roughly 10,000 people annually, could be attributed to heat. Furthermore, the U.S. Global Change Research Program projects a significant rise in heat-related deaths by the end of this century if greenhouse gas emissions persist.

Impact on Infrastructure

Infrastructure systems are equally vulnerable to extreme heat. Asphalt roads can buckle or become soft, power lines can sag, and power outages may occur when electricity demand is at its peak. Extreme heat also exacerbates the urban heat island effect, putting enormous stress on energy systems, water supply, and the overall livability of cities. Aging public transit systems are more prone to breakdown when systems fail due to impacts from extreme heat. Extreme heat can increase demand on the use of air conditioning which can spur power brownouts and blackouts, which can increase demand on public cooling sites and EMS calls for heat related medical emergencies. Extreme heat buttressed by high winds can lead to major wildfires that can destroy utility lines, power stations, and other critical energy systems.

Mitigation vs. Response

As the world confronts escalating climate change, extreme heat emerges as a unique threat that necessitates innovative solutions, not just quick fixes. Traditional disaster responses are largely reactive, targeting immediate, large-scale disasters. A recent article in the Washington Post reported recent calls for FEMA to proactively to declare heat emergencies as disasters. The Stafford Act, along with Disaster Declarations that come with them, form crucial components of the United States' disaster response policy. Designed for major disasters that exceed local jurisdictional capabilities, they facilitate an infusion of Federal resources for swift response and recovery actions. FEMA steers this policy with a prescribed formula for assessing the required support level for jurisdictions, based on damage thresholds. In short, the Stafford Act and system for Disaster Declaration is ill suited to remedy the longer term impacts of extreme heat events.

Extreme heat is a chronic, slow-moving threat with profound long-term implications. It necessitates a paradigm shift from reactive responses to proactive investment in mitigation and preparedness. The graphic below, while focusing on healthcare response to public health emergencies, is an apt metaphor for our needed paradigm shift on mitigation spending.

Flattening the curve by slowing the spread of pandemics such as Coronavirus, so that health care demands stay within capacity.

This is where the FEMA Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) comes into play. The program prioritizes resilience-building before disaster strikes to safeguard communities and prevent loss of life and property. Addressing extreme heat events, this includes supporting projects that explore the impacts of heatwaves, develop heat forecasting models, assess the effectiveness of heat mitigation strategies, and identify best practices for heat resilience. This involves measures like building and retrofitting heat-resistant infrastructure, establishing cooling centers, creating green spaces, and conducting public education about heat risks.

Nevertheless, the responsibility does not rest solely with FEMA. States have a crucial role and responsibility in planning and implementing strategies to reduce morbidity and mortality due to extreme heat. This involves integrating climate adaptation strategies into urban planning and public health policy, as every level of government must play a part in ensuring we adapt amidst increasing temperatures.

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So What, Now What

As we navigate this era of increased heat, it's crucial to consider potential long-term implications, including retreat and relocation. Areas consistently hit by extreme heat may become uninhabitable, akin to flood-prone or wildfire-prone areas, forcing residents to relocate. Questions which will increasingly confront our communities in the US:

• At what point will we need to temporarily retreat or relocate populations due to extreme heat?

• Where and how we will we accommodate this population migration?

This prospect of climate-induced migration brings social, economic, and logistical challenges. From finding suitable resettlement land to ensuring socio-economic well-being for displaced populations, the path to adaptation is complex and requires innovative, collaborative action.

While the Stafford Act remains a critical tool in our disaster response system, it is grossly insufficient to tackle the pervasive threat of extreme heat. A comprehensive approach blending reactive disaster relief, proactive investments of the FEMA BRIC Program, and state-led initiatives is essential. Our collective action must aim towards a society that's resilient, adaptive, and prepared for this new climate reality. Confronting the challenges posed by extreme heat offers an opportunity to reshape our future, guiding us towards a more sustainable, resilient, and equitable world.